Economic Survey 2025-26 Highlights: India Growth, GDP & Key Data

According to the Economic Survey 2025-26, potential growth for India is estimated to be around 7 percent, while real GDP growth for financial year 2027 (FY27) is estimated to be 6.8-7.2 percent.

• Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2025-26 in Parliament on 29 January, 2026.

Economic Survey 2025-26 Key facts

• According to the first advance estimates, real GDP growth and GVA growth for FY26 are estimated to be 7.4 and 7.3 percent respectively.
• Potential growth for India is estimated to be around 7 percent, while real GDP growth for FY27 is estimated to be 6.8-7.2 percent.
• The central government’s revenue receipts reached 9.2% of GDP in FY25 (PA).
• In September, 2025, GNPA reached a multi-decade low of 2.2%.
• By March, 2025, 55.02 crore bank accounts were opened under PMJDY, of which 36.63 crore are in rural and semi-urban areas.
• In September, 2025, the number of unique investors crossed the 12 crore mark, of which about 25 percent are women.
• Between 2005 and 2024, India’s share in global merchandise exports nearly doubled from 1% to 1.8%.
• Services exports reached an all-time high of USD 387.6 billion in FY25, registering a growth of 13.6%.
• India remains the world’s largest recipient of remittances, with inflows reaching USD 135.4 billion in FY25.
• As of 16 January, 2026, India’s foreign exchange reserves increased to USD 701.4 billion, providing cover for 11 months of imports and 94% of external debt.
• Domestic inflation averaged 1.7 percent during April-December, 2025.
• In the agricultural year (AY) 2024-25, India’s foodgrain production is estimated to reach 3577.3 lakh metric tonnes (LMT), which is 254.3 LMT higher than the previous year.
• Since the launch of PM-KISAN, more than ₹4.09 lakh crore has been released to eligible farmers.
• Viksit Bharat-Gram is a comprehensive statutory reform that links MGNREGS with the long-term vision of Viksit Bharat 2047.
• Manufacturing GVA grew by 7.72% in the first quarter of FY26 and 9.13% in the second quarter, reflecting structural reform.
• Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes across 14 sectors have attracted actual investment of more than ₹2.0 lakh crore, generating additional production/sales of over ₹18.7 lakh crore and more than 12.6 lakh jobs as of September, 2025.
• The India Semiconductor Mission has advanced domestic capabilities, with 10 projects involving investments of about ₹1.60 lakh crore.
• High-speed corridors have increased nearly tenfold—from 550 km (FY14) to 5,364 km (FY26, till December, 2025); 3,500 km of railways were added in FY26.
• India is the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market, with the number of airports increasing from 74 in 2014 to 164 in 2025.
• Historic turnaround for DISCOMs; a positive PAT of ₹2,701 crore was recorded for the first time in FY25.
• India ranks third globally in total renewable energy and installed solar capacity.
• India has become the fourth country to achieve Autonomous Satellite Docking (SPADEX) capability.
• Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) at the primary, upper primary and secondary stages stands at 90.9, 90.3 and 78.7 respectively.
• India now has 23 IITs, 21 IIMs and 20 AIIMS, along with two international IIT campuses established in Zanzibar and Abu Dhabi.
• India has accelerated the reduction in maternal and infant mortality rates since 1990, exceeding the global average.
• By January 2026, more than 31 crore unorganised workers have been successfully registered on the e-Shram portal, of which 54% are women.
• More than 2.8 crore vacancies were posted on the National Career Service portal in FY25, and by September FY26 this figure had already crossed 2.3 crore.
• The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measured by NITI Aayog declined from 55.3% in 2005-06 to 11.28% in 2022-23.

Fiscal developments:

• In 2025, three sovereign credit rating upgrades were recorded—by Morningstar DBRS, S&P Global Ratings and Rating and Investment Information (R&I), Inc.
• The central government’s revenue receipts increased from an average of about 8.5 percent of GDP during FY16-FY20 to 9.2% of GDP in FY25 (PA).
• The direct tax base expanded steadily, with income tax returns filed increasing from 6.9 crore in FY22 to 9.2 crore in FY25.
• During April-December, 2025, gross GST collections stood at ₹17.4 lakh crore, registering a year-on-year growth of 6.7 percent.

Capital expenditure

• The central government’s effective capital expenditure increased from an average of 2.7 percent of GDP in the pre-pandemic period to about 3.9 percent in the post-pandemic period and reached a high of 4 percent of GDP in FY25.
• Through the Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment (SASCI), the Centre has incentivised states to maintain capital expenditure at around 2.4 percent of GDP in FY25.
• The combined fiscal deficit of state governments remained broadly stable at around 2.8 percent of GDP in the post-pandemic period, similar to pre-pandemic levels, but in recent years it increased to 3.2 percent in FY25, reflecting emerging pressures on state finances.
• India has reduced its general government debt-to-GDP ratio by about 7.1 percentage points since 2020, while also maintaining high public investment.

Banking sector performance

• A significant improvement has been observed in the asset quality of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs), as reflected in their GNPA ratio of 2.2% in September, 2025 and net NPA ratio of 0.5% in September, 2025, reaching multi-decade lows and record lows respectively.
• As of 31 December 2025, year-on-year growth in outstanding credit by SCBs increased to 14.5 percent compared to 11.2 percent in December, 2024.

Financial inclusion

• Under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) launched in 2014, 55.02 crore accounts have been opened by March, 2025, of which 36.63 crore are in rural and semi-urban areas, establishing basic savings and transaction infrastructure for the previously unbanked population.
• The Stand-Up India scheme provides bank loans ranging from ₹10 lakh to ₹1 crore to SC, ST and women entrepreneurs to set up greenfield enterprises.
• The Prime Minister Street Vendor’s AtmaNirbhar Nidhi (PM SVANidhi) scheme is providing collateral-free working capital loans to street vendors.
• The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) is financing micro and small enterprises in manufacturing, trading, services and allied agricultural activities. As of October 2025, more than ₹36.18 lakh crore had been disbursed across 55.45 crore loan accounts under this scheme.

Other aspects of the financial sector

• During FY26 (till December 2025), 235 lakh demat accounts were added, taking the total to over 21.6 crore. Crossing 12 crore unique investors in September, 2025 was a significant milestone, of which about one-fourth were women.
• The mutual fund industry also expanded, with 5.9 crore unique investors by the end of December 2025, of which 3.5 crore (as of November 2025) were from non-Tier-I and Tier-II cities, indicating the spread of financial participation beyond traditional urban centres.
• India’s first International Financial Services Centre at GIFT City continues to build a robust ecosystem to attract and channel global capital.

Global merchandise exports

• Between CY 2005 and CY 2024, India’s share in global merchandise exports nearly doubled from 1 percent to 1.8 percent, while its share in global commercial services exports more than doubled from 2 percent to 4.3 percent.
• According to UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2025, India was among the leading economies in trade partner diversification, ranking third in the Global South and recording a higher trade diversification score than all Global North economies.
• India’s total exports reached a record USD 825.3 billion in FY25, registering a year-on-year growth of 6.1 percent, driven by strong growth in services exports.
• Non-petroleum exports reached a historic high of USD 374.3 billion in FY25, while non-petroleum, non-gems and jewellery exports accounted for about four-fifths of total merchandise exports.
• Services exports reached an all-time high of USD 387.6 billion in FY25, registering a growth of 13.6 percent, strengthening India’s position as a global hub for technology and business services.

Current account deficit

• India’s current account deficit remained moderate, supported by strong net inflows from services exports and remittances, which offset the merchandise trade deficit. In Q2 FY26, India’s CAD at around 1.3 percent of GDP was better than many other major economies.

Foreign exchange reserves

• As of 16 January, 2026, India’s foreign exchange reserves increased to USD 701.4 billion, providing cover for about 11 months of imports and more than 94 percent of external debt, strengthening resilience against external vulnerabilities.

Total FDI inflows

• Amid a subdued global investment environment, India continued to attract significant foreign direct investment, with total FDI inflows reaching USD 64.7 billion during April-November, 2025.
• In 2024, India ranked fourth globally in greenfield investment announcements, with more than 1,000 projects, and emerged as the largest destination for greenfield digital investment during 2020-24.

Inflation: under control and stable

• India recorded the lowest inflation rate since the inception of the CPI series, with average headline inflation at 1.7% during April-December ’25. The main reason for the decline in retail inflation is the general disinflationary trend in food and fuel prices, which together account for 52.7 percent of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
• Notably, among major emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), India recorded one of the sharpest declines in headline inflation in 2025 compared to 2024, of about 1.8 percentage points.

Agriculture and food management

• Between FY15 and FY24, the livestock sector witnessed strong growth, with GVA increasing by about 195 percent. The fisheries sector also performed well, with fish production growing by more than 140 percent during 2014-2024 compared to 2004-14.
• With a good monsoon season, India’s foodgrain production in the agricultural year (AY) 2024-25 is estimated to reach 3,577.3 lakh metric tonnes (LMT), which is 254.3 LMT higher than the previous year. This increase is due to higher production of rice, wheat, maize and coarse cereals (Shri Anna).
• Despite the increase in foodgrain production, horticulture, which accounts for about 33 percent of agricultural GVA, has emerged as a key driver of agricultural growth. In 2024-25, horticulture production reached 362.08 million tonnes (MT), surpassing the estimated foodgrain production of 357.73 MT.

Services: from stability to new frontiers

• In the first half of FY26, the share of services in GDP increased to 53.6 percent; according to FY26 FAE, the share of services in GVA stood at an all-time high of 56.4 percent, reflecting the growing importance of modern, tradable and digitally delivered services.
• India is the world’s seventh-largest exporter of services, with its share in global services trade increasing from 2 percent in 2005 to 4.3 percent in 2024.
• The services sector remains the largest recipient of foreign direct investment inflows, accounting for an average of 80.2 percent of total FDI during FY23-FY25, higher than 77.7 percent in the pre-pandemic period (FY16-FY20).

Industry’s next leap: structural transformation and global integration

• Industrial activity strengthened in FY26, with industry GVA growing by 7.0% (in real terms) in the first half despite global challenges.
• Manufacturing growth accelerated, with GVA growth of 7.72% in the first quarter of FY26 and 9.13% in the second quarter, reflecting structural reform.
• Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes across 14 sectors attracted actual investment of more than ₹2.0 lakh crore by September, 2025, generating additional production/sales of over ₹18.7 lakh crore and creating more than 12.6 lakh jobs.
• India’s innovation performance improved steadily, with its Global Innovation Index rank improving from 66th in 2019 to 38th in 2025.
• The India Semiconductor Mission has advanced domestic capabilities, with 10 semiconductor manufacturing and packaging projects approved across 6 states, involving investments of about ₹1.60 lakh crore. Investment and infrastructure: strengthening connectivity, capacity and competitiveness.

Capital expenditure

• The Government of India’s capital expenditure has increased by about 4.2 times, from ₹2.63 lakh crore in FY18 to ₹11.21 lakh crore in FY26 (BE), while effective capital expenditure in FY26 (BE) stands at ₹15.48 lakh crore, making infrastructure a key growth driver.
• National highway infrastructure expanded significantly, with the NH network increasing by about 60 percent from 91,287 km (FY14) to 1,46,572 km (FY26, till December), and operational high-speed corridors increasing nearly tenfold—from 550 km (FY14) to 5,364 km (FY26, till December).
• Railway infrastructure continued to expand, with the rail network reaching 69,439 route km by March, 2025, a target of adding 3,500 km in FY26, and achieving 99.1 percent electrification by October, 2025.
• India has emerged as the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market, with the number of airports increasing from 74 in 2014 to 164 in 2025.

Power sector

• The power sector recorded continued capacity expansion, with installed capacity increasing by 11.6 percent (year-on-year) to 509.74 GW by November, 2025, and the demand-supply gap declining from 4.2 percent in FY14 to zero by November, 2025.
• Power sector reforms brought a historic turnaround, with DISCOMs recording a positive profit after tax (PAT) of ₹2,701 crore for the first time in FY25, along with AT&C losses declining from 22.62 percent (FY14) to 15.04 percent (FY25).
• As of November, 2025, the share of renewable energy in total power generation capacity is about 49.83 percent, with India ranking third globally in overall RE and installed solar capacity.

Others

• Tele-density has reached 86.76 percent, and 5G services are now available in 99.9 percent of districts across the country.
• By October 2025, more than 81 percent of rural households have access to clean tap water under the Jal Jeevan Mission.
• Space infrastructure has strengthened, with India becoming the fourth country to achieve Autonomous Satellite Docking (SpaDeX), along with the expansion of indigenous missions and increased private sector participation.

Environment and climate change:

• During 2025-26 (up to 31 December, 2025), a total of 38.61 GW of renewable energy capacity has been installed in the country, including 30.16 GW of solar power, 4.47 GW of wind power, 0.03 GW of bio-power and 3.24 GW of hydro power.

Education

• India today operates one of the largest school systems in the world, serving 24.69 crore students across 14.71 lakh schools, supported by more than 1.01 crore teachers (UDISE+ 2024-25).
• India has made significant progress in school enrolment by strengthening infrastructure and teacher capacity, with schemes such as Poshan Shakti Nirman and Samagra Shiksha promoting access and equity. Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) stands at 90.9 at the primary level (Classes I to V), 90.3 at the upper primary level (Classes VI to VIII), 78.7 at the secondary level (Classes IX and X) and 58.4 at the higher secondary level (Classes XI and XII).

Higher education

• The number of higher education institutions (HEIs) increased from 51,534 in 2014-15 to 70,018 by June, 2025, significantly improving access. This growth is marked by a substantial increase in universities and colleges.
• The National Credit Framework (NCrF), aimed at integrating academic and skill-based education, has been adopted by 170 universities.
• The Academic Bank of Credit includes 2660 institutions, with more than 4.6 crore IDs issued, including 2.2 crore APAAR (Automated Permanent Academic Account Registry) IDs with credits.
• 153 universities have introduced flexible entry-exit pathways and biannual admissions to achieve the NEP target of 50 percent GER by 2035.

Health

• Since 1990, India has reduced its maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by 86 percent, far exceeding the global average of 48 percent.
• A 78 percent reduction has been achieved in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR), exceeding the global reduction of 61 percent, and during 1990-2023 the neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined by 70 percent compared to a global decline of 54 percent.
• The infant mortality rate (IMR) has declined by more than 37 percent over the past decade, from 40 deaths per thousand live births in 2013 to 25 in 2023.

Employment and skill development

• In Q2 FY26, a total of 56.2 crore people (aged 15 years and above) were employed, indicating the creation of about 8.7 lakh new jobs in Q2 compared to Q1 FY26.
• The Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), which covers the organised manufacturing sector, highlights the resilience of the manufacturing sector in its FY24 results, showing a year-on-year employment growth of 6 percent compared to the previous year.
• This implies that more than 10 lakh jobs were added in FY24 compared to FY23. Labour Codes have formally recognised gig and platform workers, expanding social security, welfare funds and benefit portability.

Rural development and social progress:

• The World Bank has revised the poverty line from USD 2.15 to USD 3.00 per day by adjusting for purchasing power at 2021 prices. According to the revised IPL, India’s poverty rate in 2022-23 was 5.3 percent for extreme poverty and 23.9 percent for lower-middle-income poverty.
• General government spending on social services (SSE) has shown an upward trend since FY22.
• SSE stands at 7.9% of GDP in FY 2025-26 (BE), compared to 7.7% in 2024-25 (RE) and 7% in 2023-24.

Health of the rural economy

• By December 2025, drone surveys under SVAMITVA have been completed in 3.28 lakh villages, against a target of about 3.44 lakh villages notified for drone surveys.
• Property cards have been prepared for about 1.82 lakh villages, covering 2.76 crore property cards. Leading fertiliser companies used their resources in 2023-24 to distribute 1,094 drones to SHG Drone Didis, of which 500 drones were provided under the Namo Drone Didi scheme.

Development of AI ecosystem in India:

• Small, task-specific models deployed across sectors allow innovation to spread more evenly, lower entry barriers for firms, and better fit India’s diverse economic landscape.
• Demand for AI in India is emerging from real-world problems rather than speculative frontier uses. In healthcare, agriculture, urban management, education, disaster preparedness and public administration, there is growing demand for AI systems that operate on local hardware and function in low-resource environments.