According to a recent report published by the British multinational bank Standard Chartered, India’s per capita is expected to grow by around 70 percent to United States Dollar (USD) 4,000 by 2029-30 from the present USD 2,450 in 2022-23. Gujarat is expected to lead the states in the future per capita income growth.
The per capita of a country is derived by dividing the national income of the country by its total population.
The Standard Chartered report expects India to become an upper middle income country with an economy of USD 6 trillion by 2029-30 . This is expected to make India the third largest economy in the world after the United States of America and China.
At present India is the world's fifth largest economy behind the United States of America, China, Japan and Germany.
India has been ranked as a lower middle income economy by the World Bank and it expects India to achieve the upper middle income country status by 2030.
Main highlights of the Standard Chartered Report
All the forecasts made in the report are based on the assumption that the nominal GDP growth will be 10% per annum.
The biggest contributor in the growth will be external trade which is expected to nearly double to USD 2.1 trillion by 2029-30 from USD 1.2 trillion in 2022-23. (India’s Foreign Trade Policy 2023 has set a target to double Indian exports to USD 2 trillion by 2029-30.)
The second major growth driver is expected to be household consumption. It is expected to increase to USD $3.4 trillion by 2029-30 from the present USD 2.1 trillion . Currently, household consumption constitutes 57 per cent of the country's GDP.
Gujarat is expected to lead the states in per capita growth by 2030 followed by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Haryana, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
At present Telangana leads in the per capita income with Rs 2,75,443 or USD 3,360 in 2022-23, followed by Karnataka (Rs 2,65,623), Tamil Nadu (Rs 2,41,131), Kerala (Rs 2,30,601), and Andhra Pradesh with Rs 2,07,771.
At Present Telangana, Delhi, Karnataka, Haryana, Gujarat and Andhra together account for 20 percent of the country’s GDP and the Standard Chartered report expects them to have a per capita income of USD 6,000 by 2029-30.
The report expects at least nine states to grow to the upper middle income country status with USD 4,000 in per capita income by 2029-30.
The Standard Chartered report expects the large states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to have a per capita income of USD 2,000 in 2029-30 . These two states currently make up around 25 percent of the country’s population .
The report has identified the higher share of the working population(age group of 15-59 years) as a one of the main factors which will enable high economic growth rate in the country. The share of the working age population in the country in 2020 was 64.2 per cent, which will rise to 64.8 per cent, may marginally slip to 63.6 per cent in 2040 and further down to 61.1 per cent in 2050.
The report also identifies the consistent economic reform progress, macro stability, healthy financial sector, deleveraging of the corporate sector and public capex push as other growth enablers.
Classification of Countries by World Bank
The World Bank classifies the countries into Low Income ,Middle Income and High Income. The Middle income is again sub divided into Lower -Middle Income and Upper - Middle Income.
All figures are in US dollars.
According to the World Bank India is a low Middle Income Country while China is a High Middle Income Economy.
Standard Chartered Bank
It is a British multinational bank with its headquarters in London, Britain.
It is one of the oldest foreign banks operating in India for the last 160 years.
Tagline of the bank : We are here for Good
Chief Executive Office(CEO) ,India operation : Zarin Daruwala